Planning for cycling in the dispersed city: establishing a hierarchy of effectiveness of municipal cycling policies

Urban utility cycling is being promoted widely due to various health, social, economic and environmental benefits. This study seeks to identify and rank which munic- ipal-level policies and other factors are most influential in increasing cycling as a means of everyday transport and improving the real and perceived cycling safety in car-oriented urban centres. This is achieved by identifying the key factors thought to influence cycle use and by establishing a hierarchy of effectiveness of municipal cycling policies. Data was collected through interviews with a panel of experts who also completed a Delphi study, a technique rarely used in cycling policy research, to collect and compare expert opinions to predict the outcomes of policies and external factors. Policies and external factors were scored in a theoretical policy framework according to their perceived relative influence on cycling levels and cycling safety. The results reinforce previous findings in the literature but allow for generalisation in car-oriented urban centres due to the breadth of factors eval- uated. It was found that providing cycling infrastructure is perceived to be a prerequisite for inducing utility cycling mode share. External factors such as urban form, the relative attractiveness of cycling to travel by car and wider governmental policy were perceived to have a strong influence. The generation and maintenance of political and public support is also suggested to be critical success factor.